The Attributes of Card Value
A simple but surprisingly deep question - What makes a certain player's cards worth more than others?
I see these kind of posts often on social media and message boards -
Why isnât (insert any star athlete) cardâs worth more?
Itâs good fodder for debate, but I always cringe a bit when I see it because I hope newer collectors donât get the impression that the value is WRONG. Itâs not wrong. The value is the value. If someone goes off and throws down some money on Shaquille OâNeal cards because they believe the market will suddenly realize a retired GOATâs cards should be worth more⊠they are likely to have a bad time. Itâs just not a worthwhile argument to say some star player is being valued incorrectly.
The why of it though can be interesting. And worth debating. If you are into prospecting, the why of it can help guide you to unproven athletes that might be worth buying into, because as the example above shows, itâs about more than winning championships.
The sobering fact is the vast majority of cards produced (95%???) lose value over the long term. Only certain players and only certain cards of certain players maintain and rise in value. Why is that?
Here is a framework for how I assess the market value characteristics of a player:
CHAMPIONSHIPS AND AWARDS
The obvious one. I wonât dwell on this long. If you are going to be a GOAT in your sport and in the hobby, you must win championships and you have to be the best player while doing it. We like to associate ourselves with winners. It fills the empty void in our souls.
But as we see time and time again in this hobby, there are plenty of award-winning champions who just donât get âhobby loveâ. So what else is missing?
DO THEY CONTROL THE GAME?
Itâs not enough to win championships. Youâve got to be a highlight reel. Youâve got to be THE player who it all depends on. And best yet, youâre doing things people have never seen before. The ability to dictate and control a game gives prominence and makes a playerâs star shine brighter on the biggest stage. This is why traditional centers in the NBA, pitchers in MLB, and every position other than QB in the NFL suffers in regard to hobby value⊠they arenât in a position to control outcomes consistently. Look at wings and guards in the NBA, middle-of-the-order hitters in MLB, and QBs in the NFL. Itâs not hard.
Who this helps: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shohei Ohtani, Josh Allen
Who this hurts: Tim Duncan, Justin Jefferson, Justin Verlander
DO THEY HAVE CULTURAL APPEAL?
Charisma, gravitas, magnetism⊠there are all sorts of ways to describe the kind of transcendent player that just inherently commands your attention. They are the ones that get the mega-sponsorship deals a la MJ, Tiger, and Lebron. They are in the public eye off the court just as much as on. It is the one thing that I think prospectors trip up on the most. Itâs fairly easy to see early on in a playerâs career whether they have this juice or not. Julio Rodriguez immediately comes to mind as a young athlete with a bright future who is also effervescent with charm and charisma. The market size of their team can be an amplifier but seems to matter less and less these days.
Who this helps: Patrick Mahomes, Stephen Curry, Julio Rodriguez
Who this hurts: Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant, Mike Trout
IS THERE A HOME GROWN BASE OF COLLECTORS?
This is a nuanced one that I think is important to keep in mind as it can negate the above factors substantially. If a specific playerâs cards are to maintain value, there has to be a base of collectors that want to keep them in their collections forever. That is what it boils down to. It creates a floor of sustainable value which allows interest from other collectors to grow as they jump in on an athlete later and cause values to rise over time. I think the best way to judge the potential for this early on is to look at how fans of that playerâs team treat the player. If you canât win over a teamâs hometown collectors, how are you going to get wider appeal? This matters when an athlete ditches a team in free agency or demands a trade. Those hometown collectors are likely to wash their hands of that player, tanking value, and itâs usually not recouped by a new group of fans (âŠunless you return a few years later a win a championship after going to South Beach for a few).
The player the that immediately comes to mind is Kevin Durant. His rookie year in Seattle couldnât be enjoyed by fans because the Sonics were moving, he ditched Oklahoma City, was never loved by Golden State fans, and then failed to build anything in Brooklyn. Yet, we are talking about a 2x champ, 2x Finals MVP, 1x MVP, 13x All-Star, 4x scoring champ, and perhaps the greatest scoring forward of all-time. If he did most of that in OKC, youâd be looking at a different player from a hobby value perspective.
To bring things back full circle, letâs return to the question of Shaquille OâNeal and âhobby loveâ. Because itâs interesting. He checks a lot of boxes - heâs a multi-time champ, had a dominant highlight reel career, and was one of the most charismatic players to ever lace it up. But I think it is as simple as this - Laker collectors chose Kobe over Shaq. Again, if you canât win over hometown collectors, how will you win over the rest of the hobby?
Kobe spent his career with LA, while Shaq ditched Orlando first. Kobe and Shaq reached the pinnacles of their careers together (mostly), but it was Kobe who was âthe guyâ and thatâs how it is going to stay.
